Feature
When technology advances, blue-collar and clerical workers are usually the ones to feel the most pain. While new tools can improve how these workers approach their tasks, increases in efficiency can also lead to job losses.
But as AI-based solutions become more common, these dynamics may change. This time around, the impact of generative AI is expected to be most keenly felt by white-collar and knowledge workers.
“The kinds of roles that define the 21st-century knowledge economy and that have long been considered safe havens from roboticization” will be the most keenly impacted by generative AI’s implementation, states a report from SHRM and The Burning Glass Institute.
While that doesn’t necessarily mean a notable number of white-collar and knowledge workers are going to lose their jobs. In many cases, AI will augment positions rather than eliminate them — the workplace is nevertheless about to be disrupted, at least for a time, according to the report.
We dug into the how — and what that means for the workforce of tomorrow.
The Impact of Generative AI on the Digital Workplace
Experts seem to agree that new AI tools will make workers more efficient, which will lead to increases in productivity. Some argue that this means fewer workers will be necessary to deliver the same amount of goods and services, so employers will find themselves with more workers than they need. That could lead to layoffs and hiring freezes.
Over time, however, that situation is expected to be mitigated, as decreased payroll strengthens corporate profits, prices drop and customer spending rises. More workers will be needed again, leading to “somewhat” of a rise in employment.
“There’s no question the workers who will be impacted most are those with college degrees, and those are the people who always thought they were safe,” Matt Sigelman, president of the Burning Glass Institute, told the New York Times.
Among the most affected workers will be professionals in finance and technology. That makes sense when you consider that banks and tech firms spend an estimated 60% to 80% of their payrolls on employees whose jobs will be affected by AI.
But there’s more to the story than job numbers.
According to the SHRM-Burning Glass report, as hiring slows, fewer entry-level positions will be created. That will raise the overall age of the workforce and make it more difficult to integrate new technologies.
At the same time, increases in productivity will generate higher returns for executives and investors, which in turn will drive spending on upper-tier goods and services. That should raise demand for blue-collar workers in manufacturing, services and warehouses.
In an interview with Yahoo! Finance Live, Gad Levanon, the Burning Glass Institute’s chief economist, said workforce reductions don’t necessarily equate to mass layoffs. “[A] company could decide to just stop hiring for that type of job. And then natural attrition would do [its] job over time and lead to a reduction in workforce even without layoffs.”
Related Article: 5 Ways AI Is Changing Jobs
Lessons From the Introduction of ATMs
The report notes a similar dynamic that came into play when banks introduced ATMs during the 1970s. At the time, industry and employment experts worried that ATMs would reduce the number of jobs available on banking’s front line.
But in fact, the opposite happened: ATMs reduced the cost of operations, which allowed banks to open more branches. Tellers began to do more than take deposits and disburse; they began offering advisory products and providing more personal service. As it turned out, the number of bank tellers in the US rose steadily until 2011.
“The experience of bank tellers underscores the idea that while automation can eliminate specific tasks, it does not necessarily eliminate jobs,” the report concluded. “Instead, these transformations may lead to fundamental changes in unit economics, which may increase demand in hard-to-predict ways.”
For CHROs, this means life is about to get more complicated. Roles don’t evolve on their own, so learning and development initiatives will need to keep up with changing job requirements. Workers with more focused skills will likely become more expensive and, as the characteristics of the workforce change, so must the approach of recruiters, managers and HR professionals themselves.
Related Article: Reality Check: The Truth About How AI Will Impact Jobs
AI Is Here. What's Next Remains Uncertain
As they consider how to approach that change, leaders must think about more than what types of work or which skill sets will be affected by AI. Geography plays a part here.
According to a study by time-tracking app developer DeskTime, workers in India spent 241 hours using AI in 2023, the equivalent of 30 work days. Users in the EU spent 175 hours using AI, while those in the UK used it for 150 hours.
In the U.S., workers spent an average of 93 hours using AI at work. That’s about 4.6% of their time, or the equivalent of 11 work days. The online design platform Canva was the most-used tool, followed by ChatGPT (a close second), Bing, GitHub and the translation tool DeepL.
The findings suggest that the level of AI acceptance may not align with executives’ thinking. So while the U.S. leads the world in AI research and investment by most accounts, DeskTime’s research indicates its actual use in the American workplace is significantly lower than their colleagues overseas.
Explanations can range from budget limits to data challenges, but may also include more human elements, such as a lack of training and employee unease.
For example, Gen Z is already worrying about AI’s impact on their careers. A survey by the writing platform EduBirdie found that 8% had problems when AI introduced issues into their work. For example, it may have introduced incorrect information into a report. Eleven percent have been disciplined in some way (short of dismissal) because they allowed such mistakes or otherwise used AI inappropriately.
Webinar
Sep
25
CMS Briefing: A Live Look at What’s Next in AI-Driven Platforms
Learn how leading organizations are using AI‑driven tools to publish faster, personalize smarter and stay secure.
Register
Webinar
On demand
Ready or Not: How Data-First Organizations Are Unlocking Agentforce Potential
Learn how to cut through the noise, activate Agentforce and build a Salesforce AI strategy that actually delivers.
Watch Now
Webinar
On demand
AI in Customer Service: Faster Resolutions, Happier Customers
Don’t let rising demand burn out your team. See how to build a smarter, more resilient support org.
Watch Now
Webinar
On demand
From Hype to High-Impact CX Strategies That Actually Scale
Turn buzzworthy AI and outsourcing trends into measurable CX wins with fresh 2025 data.
Watch Now
Webinar
On demand
Insights to Action Rethinking the Contact Center for Real Business Impact
Join our exclusive webinar to hear CX executives share their innovative strategies for transforming service delivery.
Watch Now
Webinar
On demand
Accelerating Healthcare Ops with AI
Sign up to see how your peers are putting AI to work — and making it stick.
Watch Now
Employees also see their jobs becoming more tenuous over time because of AI. Today, 53% think it’s unlikely they’ll lose their jobs because of the technology. That number sinks to 39% over the next decade. At that point, well over half, 61%, believe AI may threaten their positions.
That outlook is taking its toll. Two-thirds of workers feel tense or stressed during the workday because of AI, said the American Psychological Association. Thirty-eight percent said they were concerned AI may eventually take some or all of their job responsibilities.
The future may be AI, but workers face an awful lot of uncertainty.
